Spades Bidding Strategy: How to Estimate Your Bid

After the deal, each player bids exactly once, starting with the player on the dealer's left and moving clockwise. A bid is a whole number from 0 to 13: the tricks you personally expect to win. You cannot pass, and you cannot revise the number once it has been spoken, which is why the counting has to happen before you open your mouth.

The two partners' bids combine into one team contract, and either partner can win the tricks in any proportion. Bid 3 opposite a partner's 5 and the team needs 8 of the 13 tricks; it makes no difference whether you take six of them and your partner two.

The four bids do not have to add up to 13 and usually total between 10 and 13. A total above 13 means somebody is going to be set, and a total of exactly 13 leaves no room for a single slip, because there are only 13 tricks to share. Some tables enforce a minimum team bid of 4, which matters on hands where both partners are genuinely broke.

Every ace outside spades counts as one trick, with a discount if the opponents have already bid heavily and are likely to be ruffing by the second round of that suit. A king counts as a trick when you hold at least one more card in the same suit to protect it, because you can let the ace take the first round and win the second. A lone king counts as roughly half. A queen counts only when a higher honour of yours is standing in front of her.

In practice: A-7-3 of hearts is one trick. K-9-2 of clubs is one trick. Q-J-8-4 of diamonds is half at best. Add these up and round down. Rounding down feels gloomy on any single hand, and it is exactly why accurate bidders are set far less often than aggressive ones.

There are thirteen spades and the average share is a little over three per player, so a four-card spade holding is already above average and a six-card holding is a genuinely strong hand. Count each top spade you hold - the ace always, the king if you hold at least two spades, the queen if you hold at least three - and then add one trick for each spade beyond the fourth, because those long ones are still alive when everybody else has run out.

Worked examples: A-K-3 is two tricks. A-Q-9-6-2 is about two, the ace plus a length trick, since the queen is exposed to the king. A holding of 8-6-5-2 is zero or one, depending on how the hand plays. Q-4 is zero, because a queen with only one small spade to protect her usually has to be played before the ace and king are gone.

A void in a side suit is worth an extra trick or two, provided you still hold spades to ruff with, because you can trump the very first time that suit is led. A singleton is worth about one ruff, one round later. These are real tricks and the count should include them - a hand with modest honours and two short suits can be worth 5 while looking like a 3.

The trap is counting the same card twice, exactly as with spade length. If you ruff a club with your small spade, that spade is gone and cannot also be a length winner at trick twelve. A card can only be played once, so count the ruff or the trump trick, whichever is more likely, and never both.

If you bid fourth you already know three numbers, and they are real information. A running total pushing toward 13 means the tricks are all spoken for and somebody is heading for a set - shade a marginal count downward and let it be them. A running total near 10 means spare tricks are floating around, and a doubtful one is much safer to claim.

Your partner's number tells you what kind of hand you are supporting. A partner who has bid 6 holds a control hand and will take the top tricks whether you help or not, so you can drop a doubtful trick from your own count. A partner who has bid 1 has told you the contract is yours to carry, which is a reason to be conservative rather than heroic.

An opponent's nil changes the arithmetic for everyone. That player intends to win nothing, so the thirteen tricks are effectively shared by three hands instead of four, and the middle cards in your hand are worth more than usual. Bidding one higher over an opposing nil is often correct, and it also puts pressure on the covering partner.

A genuine nil hand has no aces, no king you cannot duck behind at least two other cards in the same suit, no more than three spades and none of them above the nine, and no singleton honour that will be forced out and win. Low cards spread across three suits with three small spades is the shape you are looking for. Nine-high in every suit only looks safe - it is the jacks, tens and nines that get stranded late in the hand and take the trick nobody wanted.

The reward is 100 points made and minus 100 failed, on top of whatever your partner's bid does, which is why partners usually bid their own hand slightly higher to cover. Blind nil is declared before you look at your cards, is normally worth 200 either way, and is usually only permitted when your team is behind by 100 points or more.

The count itself never changes; what changes is which way you round it. Round marginal counts up when your team is approaching ten bags, because a trick you bid cannot become a bag. Round down when the game is close and your bag column is clean, because being set costs ten times what a single bag costs.

The score turns the same dial. Well ahead, take the safe count and decline the speculative nil. Well behind with few hands left, bid the optimistic count and take the nils you would normally pass on, because a correctly cautious bid that loses the game slowly is still a losing bid.

Take this hand: ♠ A K 7 3, ♥ A 8 2, ♦ K 6, ♣ 9 5 4 2. The two top spades and the heart ace are your likely winners. The diamond king is a coin you have not flipped yet: it depends on where the ace sits and how the suit is played. The small spades may turn out useful, but do not count the same trump once as a high-card winner and again as a guaranteed ruff.

What you end up with is an estimate, not a price tag fixed to every card. Weigh the likely tricks against the uncertain ones, then look at your partner’s bid and the bag column. A partner bidding nil changes how you may need to spend your winners. After the hand, check how the estimate did, and resist turning one example into a universal bidding formula.

Say the team bids four plus three: the target is seven tricks. Take seven and you score 70; take eight and you score 71 plus one bag; take only six and you lose 70. That spread is why the uncertain winners matter so much. The scoring guide covers bag penalties and nil separately.